UFC Fight Night 153: Gustafsson vs. Smith takes place at the Ericsson Globe in Stockholm, Sweden.

Here are my free picks.

Stevie Ray (+170) x1
Stevie Ray vs. Leonardo Santos – Preliminary Card (ESPN2)

I don’t agree with these betting odds, as I feel Stevie Ray has a very good chance at defending takedowns and outstriking the Brazilian Leo Santos on the feet for the majority of 15 minutes en route to a decision victory. The Brazilian Santos is coming back after a long layoff of over two and a half years, and even before the layoff he wasn’t really a threat to justify his almost 3-to-1 favorite odds. I see this as a fight that Ray could run away with and at +170 it’s worth it to gamble against.

Chris Fishgold wins Inside the Distance (+245) x1
Makwan Amirkhani vs. Chris Fishgold – Main Card (ESPN+)

I think it is more likely that this fight hits the judges’s scorecards for a decision, but I definitely like the value in this prop. I can see Fishgold dropping Amirkhani, taking his back and sinking in a rear naked choke to earn the tap. If the fight stays standing, I can also see Fishgold finding success with his counters and it would not surprise me to see him knocking Amirkhani out cold.

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