UFC Fight Night 164: Błachowicz vs. Jacaré takes place on November 16, 2019 at Ginásio do Ibirapuera in São Paulo, Brazil.

Here are my best picks for the event:

Douglas de Andrade wins via TKO (+185) x1
Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Renan Barão – Preliminary Card (ESPN+)

I favor De Andrade to take this fight on the judges’ scorecards, however I do think he has a decent chance of finishing Barao via TKO and see value in the prop for a play at the current offering price of +185. I could see the finish coming in any round but I think the third round would be most likely, because fatigue often plays a factor for “The Baron” in the third and final stanza of his bouts.

Paul Craig wins in round 3 (+1600) x0.5
Maurício Rua vs. Paul Craig – Main Card (ESPN+)

I favor Rua to win this fight on the judges’ scorecards. However, I could see Craig earning another “shocking” late finish, as he has a history of coming back in fights. “Bearjew” is also the better conditioned fighter heading into this Light Heavyweight bout, so he may be able to capitalize on a third round finish. At +1600, this prop is worth a shot.

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