MMAStateOfMind’s UFC 223 Best Bet

Felice Herrig vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Karolina may be one of the top Strawweights in the UFC, but her style requires a few prerequisites. One of those being, that she needs at least 1 to 1.5 rounds to establish her jab. Without her jab, Karolina has trouble finding her striking range, and usually ends up getting hit at a much higher rate than normal. Felice, however, wants to get in close and out muscle Karolina, not allowing her to establish that distance. Before the jab is found, Karolina will be pushed against the fence resulting in a straightforward loss in Round 1.

Having to fight at a deficit, Karolina will need to get a little reckless to make up for that first round, and change up her style by trying to pile on the offense, but without her jab leading the way, Felice will continue to press forward and the damage will start to add up. I don’t like how Karolina backs straight up to the fence when pressured, which will allow Herrig to do what she does best, and rough up Karolina against the fence. The way I see this fight playing out, Karolina is down 2 rounds, and is not a heavy hitter, which will be necessary to turn the tide against Herrig, and end the fight in the 3rd

Pick: Herrig (+160)