MMAStateOfMind’s UFCFN 128 Best Bet

UFCFN128: Atlantic City


Thiago “Marreta” Santos vs. David Branch


Surging Thiago Santos is looking for his 5th straight finish and victory tonight, in Atlantic City, against Former WSOF Champ David Branch. Santos will start this fight the same way he does the majority of his fights, and that is finding a home for that body kick that sets up the rest of his game, keeping his opponent at the range he wants them. Thiago’s primary weapons are the body kick and head kick, to which most of his highlights display, but he has a glaring weakness on the ground, and can be out positioned and punished on the ground by a superior grappler. What does he have across the cage from him in New Jersey, but a fighter that is significantly better than him in that aspect of the fight game.


It is not an easy go to close the distance on Santos, but neither was it against Rockhold, and even though the fight ended up not going his way, Branch was still able to close the distance & get the fight in the clinch, and press Rockhold against the fence. This is the phase of the fight that Branch will find the majority of his success, pressing Santos against the cage while dirty boxing, all to set up a takedown off the cage, likely a trip. Once on the ground, Branch can smother Santos for the better of 3 rounds, if not finding a submission in late round 2 to round 3 when Santos gasses.


Thiago’s power is no joke, and he can end the fight with one well placed shot, but the “O.G. Champ Champ” has a clear path to victory and is at decent plus money when the fight should be a pick em.


Pick: Branch ML +150