Supar Tipstar’s UFC Fight Night 118 Best Bet

SuparTipstar’s UFC Fight Night 118 Best Bet

*SuparTipstar’s Best Bet record to date is 1-1 for +4u and an ROI of 200%.
The focus of my best bet tonight is the fight between Jan Blachowicz and Devin Clark. Devin Clark is coming into this fight as the favourite, likely based on his 8-1 record, wrestling base and two fight win streak compared to Jan, who has lost four of his last five and could be argued to be nearing the end of his career. Clark brings a high level of athleticism and a grinding wrestling style to the octagon. That was enough to gain decision victories over the likes of Josh Stansbury and Jake Collier but it really only gets you so far in the UFC. He is quite a physical specimen but his fighting style is overly reliant on that fact, rather than it being a bonus to his existing skills. If you look at his three UFC fights to date he really couldn’t have asked for better physical match-ups if we disregard height.
Jan Blachowicz is easily the more skilled fighter here. His striking technique is many levels above Devin’s, as is the level of competition he has faced. Two of his four UFC losses came at the hands of the division’s big names in Jimi Manuwa and Alexander Gustafsson. His most recent loss was to Patrick Cummins and the cause of that was suffering cardio issues as a result of the level of disfigurement he inflicted on Cummins early in the fight. He is also a threat off of his back, particularly with armbars.
Clark’s path to victory here is to be cautious on the feet, minimising his chances of being countered in an exchange which he is very susceptible to as his striking defence leaves a lot to be desired, and as mentioned relies on his speed more than his technique. He has power in his strikes so I hesitate to make it seem like such a mismatch in the striking department, but I don’t think he has enough there to trouble Blachowicz unless Jan becomes overconfident and reckless. Clark will almost certainly pursue the takedown and grinding against the fence if unsuccessful in getting it to the ground, as takedown defence and cardio have been problems for Jan in the past.
I don’t believe he will be successful in doing so as a result of the jump up in competition. He wasn’t really overly successful in implementing that style against lesser competition and he faces a much greater threat here. I believe Blachowicz’s technical and powerful striking combined with an active game off of his back if it goes there gives him the edge in this fight. If he can conserve his energy correctly (and that is a big if!) I expect him to get back in the win column in his home country of Poland. I believe he has the technical ability to put Clark in trouble when he retreats, and the counter striking prowess to find his exposed chin in exchanges. Even on the ground I can’t see Clark being able to do much more than lay on him. Now that might be enough to get Clark the win if he can survive, but I consider it the less likely outcome which makes Blachowicz the favourite in my book.
Due to the nature of this matchup I won’t be betting the moneyline as I see either Blachowicz being successful with his takedown defence and getting the finish, or being ground out and gassing. Jan is well rounded enough that I don’t want to bet the knockout prop either, and I don’t see him getting a finish in round three due to his cardio problems. As a result I am going to split my best bet for this event into two half unit bets.
My best bet(s) for UFC Fight Night 118 are Jan Blachowicz in round 1 @ 7.5, +650 (Bet365), and Jan Blachowicz in round 2 @ 11.0, +1000 (Bet365), both being 0.5u bets.
I have no honorary mention for this event.