SuparTipstar’s The Ultimate Fighter 27 Finale Best Bet

SuparTipstar’s UFC best bet record to date is 9-15, +9.35u for an ROI of 32.13%.

The focus of my best bet tonight is the lightweight fight between TUF contestants Luis Pena and Richie Smullen.

Luis “The violent Bob Ross” Pena gained a decent following from the show, winning his only fight and picking up an injury doing so. He is a tall, rangy muay thai striker and he mixes everything up very well.

Richie did not pick up a following from the show as he had to withdraw from his fight due to rhabdo, and instead of saying that they made it look like he bitched out mentally. I’m not sure if the public really know what Richie is about, but I do. If he gets tired his striking becomes very poor as we’ve all seen from other SBG fighters. What people may recognise is his heart, he never gives up and he fights like a pitbull whether the gas tank is full or empty. He has surprisingly good takedowns and his strength is his grappling. He’s not your typical very high level grappler who never go ‘backwards’ on the ground, but he is proficient everywhere, takes chances and is a legitimate leg snatcher.

If the fight stays on the feet I would expect to see Luis beat up Richie pretty bad. As the bigger fighter, you may expect Luis to be able to do that, however I would question his maturity as a fighter from what we’ve seen on the show, and should he fight how he usually does with plenty of kicks, knees etc rather than limiting his game to the straight punches that are all he needs to win here, then I think he’s going to provide Richie with all the clinch opportunities he needs.

I love the odds for a Richie Smullen submission here. He is a difficult guy to face without a lot of experience behind you and he is a guy who can get wins over superior fighters. It will look and get ugly if he loses, though.

My best bet for The Ultimate Fighter 27 Finale is Richie Smullen by submission @ 13.3, +1230 (5Dimes). This is a 1u bet.