SuparTipstar’s UFC 223 Best Bet
SuparTipstar’s UFC Best Bet record to date is 8-11, +13.65u for an ROI of 61.76%.
The focus of my best bet tonight is the impromptu lightweight fight between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Al Iaquinta.
I think Iaquinta was initially underrated by the market here but the price has more than corrected by now. It would be surprising to me if he was a fish out of water here. Khabib is incredible, dominant and should of course win, but I would be surprised if he ran through Iaquinta with no problem in the first round or something like that. Iaquinta has the grounds skills to keep himself alive and he’s always going to be considered a danger on the feet.
I think we might see a somewhat slowly developing fight here given the extremely baffling circumstances that have seen it come about on short notice. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Khabib stay standing for the first round.
Given that angle, and the idea that Iaquinta won’t be ‘lost’ in there against Khabib, my bet on this one is focused on the total rounds prop. We are getting generous underdog odds on over 2.5 rounds, I think that should be much closer to even.
My best bet for UFC 223 is Over 2.5 Rounds Nurmagomedov vs Iaquinta @ 2.7, +170 (Coral, Ladbrokes). This is a 1u bet.