SuparTipstar’s UFC Best Bet record to date is 11-24, +17.6u for an ROI of 43.89%.

The focus of my best bet tonight is the main event, the heavyweight championship fight between Daniel Cormier and Derrick Lewis.

Followers of my best bet series know I am a big fan of Derrick Lewis and have cashed bets on him with regularity. Well, call me crazy but I’m going for the same again!

Look, Cormier is a much better fighter than Lewis. There is no argument. If Cormier can take Lewis down with ease, then this isn’t even a fight. And that’s the most likely scenario. With that said, I really think that people are doing Lewis a disservice, focusing on his ball temperature and free supply of fried chicken. This dude poses a significant challenge to anyone and it is being overlooked.

Cormier has taken the fight on short notice, is supposed to be somewhat banged up, and weighed in at his heaviest. That doesn’t take away his wrestling credentials which will likely win him the fight, but it does show that perhaps Cormier is liable to underrating Lewis himself.

Cormier is not infallible. His return to heavyweight was a striking matchup and could have played out quite differently without eye pokes. Here he takes on a legit 265er with big man power. An upset is possible.

Unfortunately, bettors have realised this, and Lewis’ odds have shortened. No matter, as MMAforMoney has taught me, if you are going for the upset then find a way to maximize the payoff.

Lewis only real path to victory is the KO and his cardio sucks so we are unlikely to see later rounds. We do have to cross our fingers that Cormier gets walled on his takedown attempts early – if he does, we have a real shot.

My best(s) for the UFC 230 Main Event is Derrick Lewis in round 1 @ 15.0, +1400 (Bet365), and Derrick Lewis in round 2 @ 23.0, +2200 (Bet365). Both of these bets are 0.5u.