SuparTipstar’s UFC Fight Night 125 Best Bet
*SuparTipstar’s Best Bet record to date is 5-8 for +5u and an ROI of 33.11%.
The focus of my best bet tonight is the women’s flyweight fight between Valentina Shevchenko and Priscila Cachoeira.
I’m going to keep this one short and simple. Shevchenko is a huge 90% favourite in this one. At the best odds available, Shevchenko by decision is a 34.5% probability. That has her finishing the fight at 55.5% of the time. As this is a flyweight women’s fight and it is only three rounds the typical chance of a finish is below average. I believe too much of Shevchenko’s win probability has been weighted towards the finish and there is value to be had with the decision prop.
Shevchenko’s ground game HAS been underrated in the past, and her likely advantage there could see her winning easily. Shevchenko is a striker first though, and you have to consider her desire to bring the fight to the ground. If she is easily winning the striking I can see her sticking with that for three rounds and winning an easy decision. Let’s just pray for no botched head and arm throws!
My best bet for UFC Fight Night 125 is Shevchenko by Decision @ 2.9, +190 (Ladbrokes, Coral). This is a 1u bet.