SuparTipstar’s UFC Fight Night 129 Best Bet
SuparTipstar’s UFC Best Bet record to date is 9-13, +13.35u for an ROI of 53.19%.
The focus of my best bet tonight is the light heavyweight fight between Jared Cannonier and Dominick Reyes. You will find a rare 2u stake at the bottom of the article.
Reyes comes into this fight with a perfect 8-0 record, 2-0 in the UFC with both wins by finish in the first round. He’s a confident and aggressive striker who throws a lot of power kicks and has kick knockouts, though they are sometimes quite telegraphed. Most of his fighting has been spent on the front foot so it is hard to accurately gauge his striking defence, though he was caught off guard by a Jeremy Kimball forward rush early in their fight. His takedown defence is also mostly an unknown. Kimball put it in question but ended up on the bottom and eventually tapping to a rear naked choke. Reyes did look dominant on top in that fight.
Reyes comes in as a stronger than 66% favourite here which is surprising to me given the amount of question marks around him. His level of competition has been very low but he has dismissed them well. He reminds me of Volkan Oezdemir with his aggressive, confident striking and I think he could follow a similar path to Volkan, somewhat steamrolling a couple of opponents before finding himself outmatched against a contender.
Cannonier is only 10-3 himself, 2-2 at light heavyweight, but when it comes to experience and level of competition faced his record stands far above Reyes’ to me. He went six rounds with Glover Teixeira and Jan Blachowicz. Reyes has barely fought six rounds in his career. Cannonier is sound offensively pretty much everywhere, but also has a lot of holes defensively. He is a rare heavily muscled competitor who doesn’t rely on power, and doesn’t tire in the way you’d expect. He’s faster than you’d think, and more flexible than you’d think on the ground and in his kicking game.
This is a case of a guy whose limitations have been exposed against a guy whose limitations, along with some of his abilities, are unknown. In MMA it seems like the more fights you end quickly as a guy with unknown limitations, the better the unknowns regarding your ability are assumed to be. Reyes hasn’t fought anyone of this standard, and Cannonier has not been outmatched against contenders. It seems to me that the betting line is treating Reyes as a likely contender, which doesn’t seem to me to be a fair balancing of the information we are missing when it comes to him.
Cannonier could be the next guy to get finished quickly by Reyes as he continues on the Volkan path, but I wouldn’t count on it. If he doesn’t have the skills to do that the odds swing dramatically in Cannonier’s favour. His boxing is sharp, he can throw power when he decides to, his counters get better the longer the fight goes. Matching up against an undefeated, confident but unproven aggressor Cannonier could have a good chance of getting a finish himself, and resetting Reyes’ status and hype.
I’m staking 2u here, which is rare but represents the possible edge in this fight should I be correct that we have an inflated idea of what we don’t know about Reyes. I’ll be splitting this into three bets. One on the Cannonier moneyline, and two on Cannonier round props.
My best bet(s) for UFC Fight Night 129 are 1u Cannonier @ 3.0, +200 (Bet365, 5Dimes), 0.5u Cannonier Round 1 @ 13.0, +1200 (Bet365), and 0.5 Cannonier Round 2 @ 17.0, +1600 (Bet365).