SuparTipstar’s UFC Best Bet record to date is +6.14u for an ROI of 11.35%.
The focus of my best bet for this event is the women’s flyweight match-up between Maycee Barber and JJ Aldrich.
This is a rare occasion where I am buying the hype rather than betting against it. Barber is very advanced for a 20 year old fighter. She fights with an attitude and viciousness that is often lacking in the women’s divisions.
The fact that the women’s divisions are still developing and searching for talent means that there are still plenty of female fighters who are in a position where they don’t belong and it is a matter of time before they put enough losses together to get cut. This is a new division issue, not a female fighter issue, but given there are simply fewer female fighters it compounds the issue.
In practice this often results in mismatches happening even all the way up to title contention (and actual title fights until the initial ‘fake’ champ has been found out, think Esparza, Montana, Rousey…). What this all means for this bet is that in these divisions, if you have a prospect who may be legitimate or illegitimate – the upside to the outcome where they are legitimate is huge. They could be champion level. The same scenario in the men’s lightweight division, for example, just indicates that you belong and can contend.
If the hype behind Barber is legitimate this can be a mismatch beat-down. While I buy the hype we are still dealing with a 20 year old fighter. I would say inexperienced but she has as many fights as many women in the division. I believe she is a lot better than Aldrich, but as a young fighter with opponents increasing gradually in difficulty I can see it taking a while for Barber to be able to assert herself as the dominant fighter and ‘figure it out’. If / when she does, I expect to see the same vicious and merciless attack on her opponent resulting in a stoppage. As I believe that will be later in the fight I think we have a pretty good shot of hitting the round 3 prop.
My best bet for UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis is Maycee Barber in Round 3 @ 12.5, +1150 (5Dimes). This is a 1u bet.