SuparTipstar’s UFC on Fox 28 Best Bet
SuparTipstar’s UFC Best Bet record to date is 6-10, +10.5u for an ROI of 54.97%.
The focus of my best bet tonight is the women’s bantamweight fight between Sara McMann and Marion Reneau.
It’s somewhat amusing that this fight comes after my previous best bet where I detailed the potential drawbacks of women training the same as men and implementing the same game plans, as that is without a doubt how Sara McMann’s game should, and has, been built. Her physicality and power is likely unmatched throughout women’s MMA, and pairing that with her Olympic level wrestling has always made her a tough opponent, though more so in the earlier days of women’s MMA.
I don’t think Sara took the sport seriously enough at that time. There was a long period where her striking training was done via Skype, for god’s sake! That said, over the years her game has developed in a manner that increases her win probability. She has more faith in her hands and throws them with power in an attempt to get the opponent on the back foot, enabling her to go for the takedown, usually from the clinch. She is one of very few women who poses a real ground and pound threat from any position, and her strength, grip and squeeze abilities mean she is a very dangerous lady to allow anywhere near your neck. Even though she plays to her strengths she is still liable to be outdone by technique on the ground. Alexis Davis almost secured a triangle choke against her late in the first round of that contest, and more recently Ketlen Vieira almost secured a knee bar from the bottom, before exposing McMann as a fish out of water on her back and submitting her with an incomplete arm triangle. Those two fighters are black belts in BJJ, but so is Reneau.
It’s hard not to be a fan of Marion Reneau. She seems to be in the sport purely out of her competitive nature. I don’t think she has major title aspirations and I believe it is more about her testing herself than anything. She may be 40, and a part time fighter, but she is the more technical of the two fighters here and her BJJ black belt is genuine. She is easily the more technical striker and submission fighter. She usually fights aggressively and brings the fight to her opponent. The big question is will that be enough to overcome McMann’s physicality and wrestling ability?
I don’t know. I tend to view the betting line as fair, giving McMann the edge but leaving Reneau with a very fair chance of winning. I’m looking elsewhere in this fight for value and I think one of the props provides that.
Reneau has seven UFC fights, three of which did not go the distance. McMann has nine UFC fights, six of which did not go the distance. Given that they both fight aggressively, McMann’s above average finishing ability for the women’s division as described above, and the gaping holes in her game facing a technically superior opponent I think there is a very good chance that this fight does not go the distance. The ‘under 2.5 rounds’ prop provides more value than the ‘fight does not go the distance’ prop, in my view, and that will be my bet.
My best bet for UFC on Fox 28 is ‘Under 2.5 Rounds’ in the fight between Sara McMann and Marion Reneau @ 3.25, +225 (Bet365). This is a 1u bet.