SuparTipstar’s UFC on FOX 29 Best Bet
Supartipstar’s UFC Best Bet record to date is 9-11, +15.35u for an ROI of 66.45%.
The focus of my best bet tonight is the lightweight main event matchup between Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje.
The betting line is close to even but I personally see Gaethje as the favourite here. I think it’s possible that people sleep on the designed nature of the brawls he ends up in and the nuances of his game may be lost on the average fan or bettor.
On paper you could say Poirier is the more technical striker of the two, and while that is true, he performs better on the front foot. When he is pressured or out landed on the feet he tends to move to his wrestling to win rounds. I believe he will be thinking he can do that here, but I think getting anything other than a hurt Gaethje to the mat is a stiff task.
Poirier can definitely crack Gaethje and if he comes well prepared for Justin’s style then he may well do so, but I see the fight going according to Gaethje’s game plan. I think he will pressure Poirier and keep him on the back foot, hopefully survive the sharp punches he will eat in achieving that, and when Poirier starts to wear and realises his wrestling option isn’t going to work I can see him succumbing to Gaethje’s offense.
As for my best bet, I will be splitting it in two and taking aim at the Gaethje rounds props.
My best bet(s) for UFC on FOX 29 is Justin Gaethje in round 2 @ 9.0, +800 (Betfred) and Justin Gaethje in round 3 @ 12.0, +1100 (Skybet, Ladbrokes, Betfair). Each of these bets are 0.5u for a total stake of 1u.