There are some really fun fights on this card. I can’t say I’m too thrilled with the main and co-main, but how can one not be excited to watch Jouban vs. Perry!? That isn’t a fight I’m looking to bet; far too much chaos to be confident either way. My pick is Perry by KO, but no bet.
Hirota vs. Miller
However, one play I’m confident in from a betting standpoint, is Mizuto Hirota to beat Cole Miller. Listening to Cole in interviews, it’s clear to see he isn’t hungry and is upset with the UFC. It doesn’t sound as though he’s remotely enjoying himself, and even said he may quit. Not good signs when competing at the highest level of the sport. Hirota is available at -115, which I think is fair. I believe he has the better striking and wrestling. Cole holds all the cards on the ground, but I don’t think it’ll get there. Hirota for 1 unit will be getting my money.
Covington vs. Barbarena
Covington against Barberena should be a pretty straight forward affair for Colby. Barberena is a lightweight really, and should have a pretty significant size disadvantage. I honestly don’t believe he can overcome that, and the wrestling prowess of Covington. I’m using Covington in a parlay with Josh Emmett at +103.
Emmett vs. Holtzman
Emmett is fighting one of the worst fighters on the roster, in my opinion, in Scott Holtzman. Fighting at home, as well, the crowd will firmly be in Emmett’s corner and will probably sway the judges a bit, as well. I think this goes the distance, with Emmett winning a fairly clear-cut decision.
Faber vs. Pickett
Uriah Faber fights at home, in Northern California, against Brad Pickett. I think the UFC, and match-maker Sean Shelby, has tried to give Faber a lay-up in his retirement fight. Pickett is tough as nails, though, and a solid veteran fighter in his own right. No way I play the ‘California Kid’ at -400, even though I think he wins, that’s a steep price. Pickett is no slouch, and can cause a lot of problems if he keeps it standing. Faber submission at +200 is tempting, however.
Gall vs. Northcutt
Mickey Gall versus Sage Northcutt seems to have divided the internet. I’m not playing this one, but it amazes me people are so confident one way or the other. Gall hasn’t fought anyone of quality, as of yet, and Sage has huge holes in his game. There just isn’t a way to be confident on this one, in my opinion. Northcutt would be my pick, and with the experience he has he should be winning, but if Gall gets him down, I’m not sure Northcutt has the answers. Sage also seems to have a low fight IQ, but I’m not sure if Gall will have the capacity to take advantage. I guess we’ll find out soon enough!
Hirota 1u (-115)
Emmett/Covington Parlay (+103)
Faber via Submission (+200)